US crude, product inventories likely down last week: Reuters poll

Tue, May 20, 2025 (Reuters) - U.S. crude oil stockpiles likely fell last week, along with distillate and gasoline inventories, a preliminary Reuters poll found on Monday.

Five analysts polled by Reuters, ahead of weekly inventory data, estimated that crude inventories fell on average by about 1.4 million barrels in the week to May 16.

The poll was conducted ahead of weekly reports from the American Petroleum Institute at 4:30 p.m. EDT (2030 GMT) on Tuesday, and the Energy Information Administration, the statistical arm of the U.S. Department of Energy, at 10:30 a.m. EDT (1430 GMT) on Wednesday.

Crude inventories rose by 3.5 million barrels to 441.8 million barrels in the week ended May 9, the EIA said, compared with analysts' expectations in a Reuters poll for a 1.1 million-barrel draw.

REUTERS FORECAST ACTUAL FOR WEEK PREVIOUS YR-AGO CHANGE

CHANGE FOR WEEK ENDED (EIA) ENDED WEEK CHANGE WEEK ENDED

05/16/25 05/09/25 05/17/25

CRUDE -1.4 MLN 441.8 3.5 MLN 1.8 MLN

DISTILLATE -1.4 MLN 103.6 -3.2 MLN 0.4 MLN

GASOLINE -0.9 MLN 224.7 -1 MLN -0.9 MLN

REFINERY RUNS 1.0 PCT PT 90.2% 1.2 PCT PT 1.3 PCT PT

NATGAS STORAGE FORECAST 120 BCF TO 108 BCF (FIVE FORECASTS)

Analysts estimated distillate inventories, which include diesel and heating oil fell by about 1.4 million barrels last week, while gasoline stockpiles, decreased by about 900,000 barrels.

The rate of refinery utilization was estimated to have risen by 1 percentage points from the 90.2% of total capacity in the previous week, the poll found.

All figures for stocks are in millions of barrels. Refinery rate changes are measured in percentage points.

Organization Crude Distillate Gasoline Refinery runs

Confluence -0.5 -1.0 1.0 1.2

Excel Futures -1.8 -3 2.6 0.7

Price Futures Group -2.0 -2.0 -2.0 1.0

Ritterbusch Associates 1.2 0.5 -1.8 0.5

Stratas Advisors -4.2 -1.2 -1.8 1.4